Please note that the copy function is not enabled for this field.
If you wish to
modify
existing outcomes, please copy and paste the current outcome text into the Update field.
LOGIN
CREATE ACCOUNT
LOGIN
CREATE ACCOUNT
MY TRIALS
REGISTER TRIAL
FAQs
HINTS AND TIPS
DEFINITIONS
Trial Review
The safety and scientific validity of this study is the responsibility of the study sponsor and investigators. Listing a study does not mean it has been endorsed by the ANZCTR. Before participating in a study, talk to your health care provider and refer to this
information for consumers
Download to PDF
Trial registered on ANZCTR
Registration number
ACTRN12618000783224
Ethics application status
Approved
Date submitted
23/01/2018
Date registered
9/05/2018
Date last updated
22/08/2022
Date data sharing statement initially provided
22/08/2022
Date results information initially provided
22/08/2022
Type of registration
Retrospectively registered
Titles & IDs
Public title
Epidemiology and estimation of long-term surgical mortality
Query!
Scientific title
Validation and extension of a multivariable prediction model of perioperative mortality in
a national perioperative dataset
Query!
Secondary ID [1]
293864
0
ADHB A+ 7383
Query!
Universal Trial Number (UTN)
Query!
Trial acronym
NZRISK
Query!
Linked study record
Query!
Health condition
Health condition(s) or problem(s) studied:
Perioperative mortality
306326
0
Query!
Condition category
Condition code
Anaesthesiology
305411
305411
0
0
Query!
Other anaesthesiology
Query!
Surgery
305412
305412
0
0
Query!
Other surgery
Query!
Public Health
305440
305440
0
0
Query!
Epidemiology
Query!
Intervention/exposure
Study type
Observational
Query!
Patient registry
False
Query!
Target follow-up duration
Query!
Target follow-up type
Query!
Description of intervention(s) / exposure
NZRISK will provide a multivariate risk model based on data from July 2011 to June 2016 of the New Zealand Ministry of Health National Minimum Dataset (NMDS. Covariates will include age, gender, ASA, acuity, specialty, surgical severity, ethnicity and cancer status.
Query!
Intervention code [1]
300125
0
Early Detection / Screening
Query!
Intervention code [2]
300155
0
Diagnosis / Prognosis
Query!
Comparator / control treatment
Observation - no control
Query!
Control group
Uncontrolled
Query!
Outcomes
Primary outcome [1]
304547
0
Postoperative Mortality at 30 days
Query!
Assessment method [1]
304547
0
Query!
Timepoint [1]
304547
0
30 days post surgery
Query!
Secondary outcome [1]
342925
0
Days Alive out of hospital
Query!
Assessment method [1]
342925
0
Query!
Timepoint [1]
342925
0
90 days
Query!
Secondary outcome [2]
346657
0
Postoperative Mortality at 90 days
Query!
Assessment method [2]
346657
0
Query!
Timepoint [2]
346657
0
90 days post surgery
Query!
Secondary outcome [3]
346670
0
Postoperative Mortality at 1 year
Query!
Assessment method [3]
346670
0
Query!
Timepoint [3]
346670
0
1 year post surgery
Query!
Secondary outcome [4]
346671
0
Postoperative Mortality at 2 year
Query!
Assessment method [4]
346671
0
Query!
Timepoint [4]
346671
0
2 years post surgery
Query!
Eligibility
Key inclusion criteria
undergoing a surgical procedure of any acuity (elective, expedited, urgent or emergency) in New Zealand
Query!
Minimum age
18
Years
Query!
Query!
Maximum age
No limit
Query!
Query!
Sex
Both males and females
Query!
Can healthy volunteers participate?
No
Query!
Key exclusion criteria
Cardiac Surgery
Query!
Study design
Purpose
Screening
Query!
Duration
Cross-sectional
Query!
Selection
Random sample
Query!
Timing
Retrospective
Query!
Statistical methods / analysis
Data of approximately 300,000 patients fromNational Minimum Dataset (NMDS) and National Mortality Registry. The dataset will be split for derivation and validation. We will use multivariable logistic regression with backward stepwise regression to derive the models.
ASA was handled as a categorical predictor with 5 categories. Operation type was mapped onto surgical grade in 4 categories of minor, intermediate, major and major-complex. Cancer was a bivariate variable for presence or absence of a cancer with potential to affect mortality. Acuity was categorical elective or acute. Age was handled as a continuous predictor.
We will use multivariable logistic regression with backward stepwise regression. Univariate analysis will be performed initially using chi-squared testing to test the relationship between each independent variable and 30-day mortality. All analyses will performed to validate a predictive model of 30-day mortality and then repeated to derive predictive models of 30-day, one-year and two-year mortality respectively. Variables that had more than 10% missing values were excluded from the analysis. Incremental improvements in the extended models by incorporating gender and ethnicity will be assessed by change in AUC and integrated discrimination improvement.
The predictive model will be derived from the full dataset and was then resampled using bootstrapping to evaluate performance. Reporting the results will be according to the TRIPOD statement.
Query!
Recruitment
Recruitment status
Completed
Query!
Date of first participant enrolment
Anticipated
Query!
Actual
31/12/2017
Query!
Date of last participant enrolment
Anticipated
Query!
Actual
31/12/2017
Query!
Date of last data collection
Anticipated
Query!
Actual
31/12/2017
Query!
Sample size
Target
360000
Query!
Accrual to date
Query!
Final
360000
Query!
Recruitment outside Australia
Country [1]
9520
0
New Zealand
Query!
State/province [1]
9520
0
Nationally
Query!
Funding & Sponsors
Funding source category [1]
298483
0
Other Collaborative groups
Query!
Name [1]
298483
0
Precision Driven Health
Query!
Address [1]
298483
0
181 Grafton Road, Auckland 1024
Query!
Country [1]
298483
0
New Zealand
Query!
Primary sponsor type
Individual
Query!
Name
Dr Douglas Campbell
Query!
Address
Dept Anaesthesia and Perioperative Services.
Level 8, Support Building, Auckland City Hospital. Park Rd, Grafton, Auckland 1024
Query!
Country
New Zealand
Query!
Secondary sponsor category [1]
297627
0
None
Query!
Name [1]
297627
0
Query!
Address [1]
297627
0
Query!
Country [1]
297627
0
Query!
Other collaborator category [1]
279911
0
Government body
Query!
Name [1]
279911
0
Auckland District Health Board
Query!
Address [1]
279911
0
Park Road
Grafton
Auckland 1024
Query!
Country [1]
279911
0
New Zealand
Query!
Other collaborator category [2]
279912
0
Individual
Query!
Name [2]
279912
0
Professor Alan Merry
Query!
Address [2]
279912
0
Dept of Anaesthesiology, University of Auckland
Park Road
Grafton
Auckland 1024
Query!
Country [2]
279912
0
New Zealand
Query!
Other collaborator category [3]
279914
0
Individual
Query!
Name [3]
279914
0
Associate Professor Tim Short
Query!
Address [3]
279914
0
Department of Anaesthesia and Perioperative Services
Auckland City Hospital
Level 8 Support Building
Park Road
Grafton
Auckland 1024
Query!
Country [3]
279914
0
New Zealand
Query!
Ethics approval
Ethics application status
Approved
Query!
Ethics committee name [1]
299470
0
Health and Disability Ethics Committees
Query!
Ethics committee address [1]
299470
0
Ministry of Health
133 Molesworth Street
PO Box 5013
Wellington
6011
Query!
Ethics committee country [1]
299470
0
New Zealand
Query!
Date submitted for ethics approval [1]
299470
0
24/11/2016
Query!
Approval date [1]
299470
0
17/01/2017
Query!
Ethics approval number [1]
299470
0
16/CEN/200
Query!
Summary
Brief summary
Currently, there is no widely used clinical tool for anaesthestists to predict perioperative mortality that has been validated in New Zealand patients. We aim to validate the Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT), a parsimonious, 6 risk factor multivariate model used in the UK, in a New Zealand cohort. We also aim to extend the model to include gender and ethnicity to tailor the model to New Zealand conditions. We will also aim to derive extended models incorporating one and two year mortality as well as 30 day mortality.
Query!
Trial website
Query!
Trial related presentations / publications
Query!
Public notes
Query!
Contacts
Principal investigator
Name
80514
0
Dr Douglas Campbell
Query!
Address
80514
0
Department Anaesthesia and Perioperative Services
Level 8, Auckland City Hospital
Park Road
Grafton, Auckland 1024
Query!
Country
80514
0
New Zealand
Query!
Phone
80514
0
+6493757095
Query!
Fax
80514
0
+6493754378
Query!
Email
80514
0
[email protected]
Query!
Contact person for public queries
Name
80515
0
Ms Davina McAllister
Query!
Address
80515
0
Anaesthesia and Perioperative Services
Level 8, Auckland City Hospital
Park Road
Grafton, Auckland 1024
Query!
Country
80515
0
New Zealand
Query!
Phone
80515
0
+6493757095
Query!
Fax
80515
0
+6493754378
Query!
Email
80515
0
[email protected]
Query!
Contact person for scientific queries
Name
80516
0
Dr Douglas Campbell
Query!
Address
80516
0
Anaesthesia and Perioperative Services
Level 8, Auckland City Hospital
Park Road
Grafton, Auckland 1024
Query!
Country
80516
0
New Zealand
Query!
Phone
80516
0
+6493757095
Query!
Fax
80516
0
+6493754378
Query!
Email
80516
0
[email protected]
Query!
Data sharing statement
Will individual participant data (IPD) for this trial be available (including data dictionaries)?
No
Query!
No/undecided IPD sharing reason/comment
Query!
What supporting documents are/will be available?
No Supporting Document Provided
Doc. No.
Type
Citation
Link
Email
Other Details
Attachment
16987
Study protocol
374364-(Uploaded-13-04-2021-10-55-36)-Study-related document.pdf
16988
Ethical approval
374364-(Uploaded-13-04-2021-10-56-29)-Study-related document.pdf
Results publications and other study-related documents
Documents added manually
Type
Is Peer Reviewed?
DOI
Citations or Other Details
Attachment
Study results article
Yes
Campbell D, Boyle L, Soakell-Ho M, et al. National...
[
More Details
]
Study results article
Yes
Stephanie Clark, MBChB, FANZCA, Luke Boyle, MSc, P...
[
More Details
]
Documents added automatically
No additional documents have been identified.
Download to PDF